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Jef"I am the pusher robot"Spaleta - Fedora Packager Productivity
ramblings of the self-elected Fedora party whip
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Fedora Packager Productivity
So in my last post I sort of presented a snapshot of what our package maintainer contributor base looks like and how much its grown.

How are we doing in terms of productivity?  That's a tougher question. But as a first cut at that, lets look at the rate of package repository growth since Fedora 7.


Fedora 7 released May 31st 2007
has 5115 maintained source packages (this includes packages added post-release)

Fedora 9 released May 13th, 2008
has 7450 maintained  source packages (this includes packages added post-release)

Fedora devel as of Aug 6th,2009
has 8639 source packages

That 12 month span between Fedora releases saw a growth of 2235 packages (not including packages added post F-7 release that were common to both) for and average of 186 packages a month. 
The 27 month span since F-7 release saw a growth of 3524 packages for an average of 130 a month
The 15 month span since F-9 release saw a growth of 3524 packages for an average of 79 a month

These are actually an undercount on repository growth because of the way we doing things. Branches grow over time after release date, and new packages would be included in both F-7 and F-9 during the release overlap associated with the F-9 testing period. So with that caveat in mind..what does this mean?

It definitely looks like we are slowing down in our rate of repository growth.  But my previous analysis looks like our maintainer pool isn't slowing down like that yet. I would need to repeat this analysis including F-8 and F-10 to confirm that and see if they fall on the same trend.   This may point to a concept of an effective carrying capacity for the size of a repository, It's not really surprising for a number of reasons.

For completeness the same sort of analysis can be done for Debian and Ubuntu making use of the scripts found here:
http://www.kirya.net/weblog/2009/01/17/counting-debian-source-packages/

Debian has long release cycles so its harder to test the carrying capacity trend with Debian data, but it is instructive as a realtive comparison of a mature project.  If there is an inherent carrying capacity effect has Debian as a more mature project reached it?  Maybe they have.

Number of source packages in etch main: 10221
Etch release date: April, 2007

Number of source packages in lenny main: 12176
Lenny release date: Feb, 2009

That 26 month span between releases saw a growth of 1955 packages in main for an average of just over 75 packages a month.

That average packages per month for Debian is similar to where Fedora is now in the last year.  That's interesting.

-jef
Comments
From: (Anonymous) Date: August 24th, 2009 05:01 pm (UTC) (Link)

number error

The 27 month span since F-7 release saw a growth of 3524 packages for an average of 130 a month
The 15 month span since F-9 release saw a growth of 3524 packages for an average of 79 a month


There's at least one number wrong there...
jspaleta From: jspaleta Date: August 25th, 2009 10:10 pm (UTC) (Link)

Re: number error

Yes... the 3524 for F-9 is wrong..the rest are right. I copied the wrong number in doing the summary sentence. Up at the top of the post the numbers are correct and can be used to regenerate the correct number.

8639-7450=1189 : package growth in 15 months since F-9 release
1189/15 ~= 79 packages/month

The corrected sentence reads:
The 15 month span since F-9 release saw a growth of 1189 packages for an average of 79 a month.

And again this is an under-estimate, because more packages became available during the F-9 livecycle in the updates repository during the F-9 lifecycle. I can't count those additions with this method...but it could be done by examining the list of SRPMs in a mirror of the F-9 repositories and seeing which ones appear as updates but not in the release tree.

-jef
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